WASHINGTON—CoStar and Tourism Economics downgraded progress projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. lodge forecast launched on the NYU Worldwide Hospitality Funding Discussion board.
Given Q1 underperformance and elevated macroeconomic issues, forecasted progress charges had been lowered throughout the top-line metrics: provide (down 0.1 proportion factors), demand (down 0.6 proportion factors), ADR (down 0.3 proportion factors), and RevPAR (down 0.8 proportion factors).
Related changes had been made for 2026: provide (down 0.5 proportion factors), demand (down 0.3 proportion factors), ADR (down 0.7 proportion factors), and RevPAR (down 0.6 proportion factors).
“Prime-line efficiency remains to be rising even within the present surroundings,” mentioned Amanda Hite, STR president. “Till shopper confidence improves, nonetheless, demand goes to stay softer—particularly within the center and lower cost tiers. Price is pushing the highest line within the group phase, and enterprise transient ought to proceed to get well in a variety of industries, however leisure good points are going to be extra remoted. Our forward-looking knowledge continues to help the observations of many business stakeholders that reserving home windows have shortened. That provides to the challenges hoteliers will face within the coming quarters.”
“We’re waiting for a second half of the yr with shoppers going through increased costs and a weaker labor market, companies tapping the brakes on funding, and tender worldwide customer volumes,” mentioned Aran Ryan, director of business research at Tourism Economics. “Whereas recession dangers have eased, the financial system—and the journey sector—will stroll on a decent rope by this era.”
The projection for gross working revenue per accessible room (GOPPAR) was additionally lowered by $3 for 2025.
“Whereas GOP progress will proceed, the tempo might be modest on account of softer demand, rising departmental prices, and restricted margin good points from ancillary revenues,” Hite mentioned. “When adjusted for inflation, GOP is down from final yr.”
