ARLINGTON, Virginia—CoStar and Tourism Economics additional downgraded development projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. lodge forecast simply launched on the seventeenth Annual Lodge Information Convention.
Given continued underperformance and elevated macroeconomic issues, forecasted development charges have been lowered throughout the top-line metrics: demand (down 0.6 share factors), ADR (down 0.5 share factors), and RevPAR (down 1.1 share factors).
Comparable changes have been made for 2026: demand (down 0.5 share factors), ADR (down 0.3 share factors), and RevPAR (down 0.7 share factors).
“Unrelenting uncertainty and inflation, coupled with robust calendar comps and altering journey patterns, have brought on decrease demand,” mentioned Amanda Hite, STR president. “Moreover, because the yr has unfolded, we’ve seen charge development converge nearer with demand. We anticipate little change within the financial outlook over the subsequent 18 months, however we’re optimistic that when commerce talks have concluded and the impression of the funds reconciliation invoice involves fruition, lodge efficiency will recuperate.”
“The slowing U.S. economic system ought to take in the results of tariffs with out tipping right into a recession,” mentioned Aran Ryan, director of business research at Tourism Economics. “The present atmosphere—characterised by slowing shopper spending, lowered enterprise capital spending, and declining worldwide visitation—will transition to 1 boosted reasonably by tax cuts and fewer coverage uncertainty as we glance to 2026.”
“Whereas our GOPPAR forecast stays unchanged from the earlier revision, GOP margins have been revised down 0.3 share factors for 2025 and a couple of.3 share factors for 2026, primarily on account of a possible improve in bills, significantly F&B,” Hite mentioned.
