WASHINGTON, D.C.—AAA tasks 45.1 million individuals will journey a minimum of 50 miles from residence over the Memorial Day vacation interval from Thursday, Could 22, to Monday, Could 26. This 12 months’s home journey forecast is a rise of 1.4 million vacationers in comparison with final 12 months and units a brand new Memorial Day weekend file. The earlier file was set again in 2005 with 44 million individuals. Regardless of considerations over rising costs, many Individuals say they’re profiting from the lengthy vacation weekend to spend time with family members, even when the journeys are nearer to residence.
“Memorial Day weekend getaways don’t must be extravagant and expensive,” stated Stacey Barber, vp of AAA Journey. “Whereas some vacationers embark on dream holidays and fly a whole lot of miles throughout the nation, many households simply pack up the automotive and drive to the seashore or take a highway journey to go to mates. Lengthy vacation weekends are perfect for journey as a result of many individuals have an additional time without work work and college students are off from faculty.”
Memorial Day Vacationers by Mode of Transportation
By Automobile: AAA tasks 39.4 million individuals will journey by automotive over Memorial Day weekend. That’s a further a million vacationers in comparison with final 12 months. Driving is the popular mode of transportation throughout vacation journey intervals, with 87 % of Memorial Day vacationers selecting to take highway journeys. This 12 months, drivers take pleasure in cheaper fuel costs. Final Memorial Day, the nationwide common for a gallon of standard was $3.59. This spring, because of decrease crude oil costs, gasoline costs haven’t seen typical seasonal spikes. With the unofficial begin of summer season kicking off the busy driving season, demand is anticipated to rise, and pump costs could creep up together with it. Fuel costs sometimes peak in the summertime and begin coming down when faculties return in session within the fall.
For drivers who’re renting vehicles over Memorial Day weekend, AAA automotive rental companion Hertz says Friday, Could 23, is anticipated to be the busiest day for pickup. Hertz says the cities seeing the best demand for rental vehicles embrace Orlando, Denver, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Miami, and Seattle.
By Air: Airports are bracing for one more bustling vacation weekend. AAA tasks 3.61 million air passengers, a virtually 2 % enhance over final 12 months when 3.55 million vacationers took to the skies. Whereas this Memorial Day weekend isn’t anticipated to set an air journey file (that was set again in 2005 with 3.64 million vacationers), this 12 months’s numbers are projected to surpass pre-pandemic ranges by 12 %. AAA reserving information (primarily based on what vacationers paid when reserving Memorial Day weekend flights) reveals home flights are 2 % dearer in comparison with final 12 months, with the common round-trip ticket costing $850. Most of these flights are to common locations like Chicago, New York, Orlando, Denver, and Seattle.
By Different Modes: Journey by different modes continues to steadily rise post-pandemic. AAA tasks 2.08 million individuals will journey by practice, bus, or cruise over Memorial Day weekend, an 8.5 % enhance over final 12 months. This class is now surpassing pre-pandemic numbers from 2018 and 2019, however doesn’t attain the file numbers of the early 2000s, when extra individuals had been selecting trains and buses submit 9/11.
Cruising’s rising recognition is highlighted by the robust demand for Alaska cruises this season. Prime home cruise locations for Memorial Day weekend embrace Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau. Total, vacationers are turning to cruises in file numbers. Earlier this 12 months, AAA projected {that a} file 19 million Individuals deliberate to take cruises in 2025.
Vacation Forecast Methodology
Journey Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P International Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a novel methodology to forecast precise home journey volumes. The financial variables used to forecast journey for the present vacation are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These information embrace macroeconomic drivers comparable to employment, output, family internet value, asset costs together with inventory indices, rates of interest, housing market indicators, and variables associated to journey and tourism, together with gasoline costs, airline journey, and lodge stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified vacation journey volumes going again to 2000.
Historic journey quantity estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a complete research measuring the journey habits of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households every month to acquire detailed journey information, ensuing within the distinctive skill to estimate customer quantity and spending, establish traits, forecast U.S. journey habits, and place model, all after the journeys have been taken.
The journey forecast is reported in person-trips. Particularly, AAA and SPGMI forecast the entire U.S. vacation journey quantity and anticipated mode of transportation. The journey forecast offered on this report was ready the week of April 14, 2025.
As a result of AAA vacation forecasts concentrate on home leisure journey solely, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers shouldn’t be made. TSA information consists of all passengers touring on each home and worldwide routes, whether or not touring for work or leisure. Moreover, TSA screens passengers every time they enter secured areas of the airport, due to this fact, every one-way journey is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which embrace the complete round-trip journey itinerary. In consequence, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and each day TSA screenings characterize various factors.
